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曼昆《经济学原理》(宏观经济学分册)英文原版PPT课件——35short


The Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

35

Unemployment and Inflation
? The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market. ? Examples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search. ? The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Unemployment and Inflation
? Society faces a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. ? If policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation. ? If they contract aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

THE PHILLIPS CURVE
? The Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 1 The Phillips Curve

Inflation Rate (percent per year) 6 B

2

A Phillips curve

0

4

7

Unemployment Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips Curve ? The Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations of unemployment and inflation that arise as shifts in the aggregate demand curve move the economy along the short-run aggregate supply curve.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips Curve ? The greater the aggregate demand for goods and services, the greater is the economy’s output, and the higher is the overall price level. ? A higher level of output results in a lower level of unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 2 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level Short-run aggregate supply B A High aggregate demand Low aggregate demand 0 7,500 8,000 (unemployment (unemployment is 7%) is 4%) Quantity of Output Inflation Rate (percent per year) 6

(b) The Phillips Curve

106 102

B

A 2 Phillips curve 0 4 (output is 8,000) Unemployment 7 (output is Rate (percent) 7,500)

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS
? The Phillips curve seems to offer policymakers a menu of possible inflation and unemployment outcomes.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

The Long-Run Phillips Curve ? In the 1960s, Friedman and Phelps concluded that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run.
? As a result, the long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. ? Monetary policy could be effective in the short run but not in the long run.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 3 The Long-Run Phillips Curve

Inflation Rate

Long-run Phillips curve B

1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . .

High inflation

Low inflation

A

2. . . . but unemployment remains at its natural rate in the long run.

0

Natural rate of unemployment

Unemployment Rate

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 4 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level Long-run aggregate supply 1. An increase in the money supply increases aggregate B demand . . . A AD2 Aggregate demand, AD 0 Natural rate of output Quantity of Output 0 Inflation Rate

(b) The Phillips Curve Long-run Phillips curve 3. . . . and increases the inflation rate . . . B

P2 2. . . . raises the price P level . . .

A

Natural rate of unemployment

Unemployment Rate

4. . . . but leaves output and unemployment at their natural rates.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve ? Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve ? In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation. ? The Fed’s ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the short run.
? Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to get unemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve Unemployment Rate =
Natural rate of unemployment - a Actual ? Expected inflation inflation

(

)

? This equation relates the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment, actual inflation, and expected inflation.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 5 How Expected Inflation Shifts the ShortRun Phillips Curve
2. . . . but in the long run, expected inflation rises, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the right. Long-run Phillips curve

Inflation Rate

B

C Short-run Phillips curve with high expected inflation A Short-run Phillips curve with low expected inflation Unemployment Rate
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

1. Expansionary policy moves the economy up along the short-run Phillips curve . . . 0

Natural rate of unemployment

The Natural Experiment for the Natural-Rate Hypothesis ? The view that unemployment eventually returns to its natural rate, regardless of the rate of inflation, is called the natural-rate hypothesis. ? Historical observations support the natural-rate hypothesis.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

The Natural Experiment for the Natural Rate Hypothesis ? The concept of a stable Phillips curve broke down in the in the early ’70s. ? During the ’70s and ’80s, the economy experienced high inflation and high unemployment simultaneously.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 6 The Phillips Curve in the 1960s
Inflation Rate (percent per year)

10

8

6
1968

4
1967 1966

2

1962 1965 1964 1963

1961

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 7 The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve
Inflation Rate (percent per year)

10

8

6
1969 1968 1967

1973 1971 1970 1972 1966

4

2

1962 1965 1964 1963

1961

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
? Historical events have shown that the short-run Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
? The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply.
? Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can worsen the short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. ? An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
? A supply shock is an event that directly alters the firms’ costs, and, as a result, the prices they charge. ? This shifts the economy’s aggregate supply curve. . . ? . . . and as a result, the Phillips curve.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 8 An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supply

(a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Price Level AS2 Inflation Rate

(b) The Phillips Curve 4. . . . giving policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. B A PC2

Aggregate supply, AS

P2 3. . . . and raises the price level . . . P

B A

1. An adverse shift in aggregate supply . . . Aggregate demand

Phillips curve, P C 0 Unemployment Rate

0

Y2

Y 2. . . . lowers output . . .

Quantity of Output

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

SHIFTS IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE: THE ROLE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS
? In the 1970s, policymakers faced two choices when OPEC cut output and raised worldwide prices of petroleum.
? Fight the unemployment battle by expanding aggregate demand and accelerate inflation. ? Fight inflation by contracting aggregate demand and endure even higher unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 9 The Supply Shocks of the 1970s
Inflation Rate (percent per year)

10
1980 1974 1979

1981

1975

8

1978

6

1973

1977

1976

4

1972

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
? To reduce inflation, the Fed has to pursue contractionary monetary policy. policy ? When the Fed slows the rate of money growth, it contracts aggregate demand. ? This reduces the quantity of goods and services that firms produce. ? This leads to a rise in unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 10 Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run
Inflation Rate A 1. Contractionary policy moves the economy down along the short-run Phillips curve . . .

Long-run Phillips curve

Short-run Phillips curve with high expected inflation C B Short-run Phillips curve with low expected inflation 0 Natural rate of unemployment Unemployment 2. . . . but in the long run, expected Rate inflation falls, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the left.
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
? To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output.
? When the Fed combats inflation, the economy moves down the short-run Phillips curve. ? The economy experiences lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

THE COST OF REDUCING INFLATION
? The sacrifice ratio is the number of percentage points of annual output that is lost in the process of reducing inflation by one percentage point.
? An estimate of the sacrifice ratio is five. ? To reduce inflation from about 10% in 1979-1981 to 4% would have required an estimated sacrifice of 30% of annual output!

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. ? How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation ? The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

The Volcker Disinflation ? When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nation’s foremost problems. ? Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10 percent to 4 percent), but at the cost of high employment (about 10 percent in 1983).

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 11 The Volcker Disinflation
Inflation Rate (percent per year)

10
1980 1981

A
1979

8
1982

6
1984 1987 1985

4
C

B
1983

2

1986

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

The Greenspan Era ? Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock.
? In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. ? This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Figure 12 The Greenspan Era
Inflation Rate (percent per year)

10

8

6
1990 1991 1989 1984 1988 1985 1987 2001 1995 1992 2000 1986 1997 1994 1993 1999 2002 1998 1996

4

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 Unemployment
Rate (percent)
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

The Greenspan Era ? Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Fed’s actions.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Summary
? The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment. ? By expanding aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with higher inflation and lower unemployment. ? By contracting aggregate demand, policymakers can choose a point on the Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment.
Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Summary
? The tradeoff between inflation and unemployment described by the Phillips curve holds only in the short run. ? The long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Summary
? The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply. ? An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western

Summary
? When the Fed contracts growth in the money supply to reduce inflation, it moves the economy along the short-run Phillips curve. ? This results in temporarily high unemployment. ? The cost of disinflation depends on how quickly expectations of inflation fall.

Copyright ? 2004 South-Western



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